This Blog is focused on students in the National Security Studies Program, the DC Diplomatic Community, and anyone else who has assisted my course, "The United States in World Affairs.".
This image lists the 11 Republicans who on May 6th voted to oust conservative House Speaker Mike Johnson, and the group continues to be major critics of the leadership as they often work to derail the conservative agenda. Practically all of them are members of the populist Freedom Caucus, and the motion to vacate was introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). At the most recent gathering of the House GOP, Donald Trump three times told Greene and her supporters to “be nice to Johnson”. In early May, Trump told Greene not to introduce the motion, but she rejected the advice. In introducing her motion to oust the Speaker, Greene claimed Johnson supported “fully funding abortion, the trans agenda, the climate agenda, foreign wars and the border crisis.” No one had any idea what she was talking about, and the immediate reaction was loud booing from the GOP side with lawmakers shouting “Liar,” You are crazy,” “Sit down,” and “These are all blatant lies.” On Truth Social, Donald Trump posted “With a Majority of One, we’re not in a position of voting on a Motion to Vacate. . . If Republicans show DISUNITY, which will be portrayed as CHAOS, it will negatively affect everything!” Prior to the vote, Trump told Johnson “You’re doing a very good job,” and said other Republicans should “leave him alone. . . Johnson is a good man who is trying very hard.” Johnson supported military assistance for Ukraine and a big reason it passed was because Donald Trump said it was important and did not oppose the measure. Greene emphasized her major issue was stopping any and all assistance to Ukraine because “we must demand peace. . . “Ukraine isn’t the 51st state and I’m screaming no as loud as possible. . . Our job is not to fund the CIA war against Russia. This is a proxy war against Russia. . . We should be negotiating peace not funding and fueling war.” Greene previously suggested the 9/11 attack was fake, and questions whether a “so called plane” really struck the Pentagon. She blames Hillary Clinton for the death of John F. Kennedy, Jr., and claims “Jewish space lasers” were responsible for forest fires in California. Vladimir Putin’s hatred of gays is well known but to Greene that means the Russian president is “protecting Christianity and traditional conservative values.” She claimed Putin just wanted to be our friend, and we were foolish to reject his friendship. She repeatedly emphasizes American interests stop at the border. Greene told her Congressional colleagues “I’m completely against the war in Ukraine. . . You know who’s driving it? It’s America. America needs to stop pushing the war in Ukraine.” She wants Republicans to have a “safe space.” She was one of six GOP House members who opposed a bill meant to preserve evidence of war crimes by Russia. Greene was one of two House Republicans to vote against mourning the 50,000 people killed in the Turkey-Syria earthquakes because she was angry at the comments of the sponsor, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC). He described the bill as a message to “war criminal Putin” that delaying humanitarian aid to the region is “despicable.” Greene was one of four House Republicans to vote against seizing the frozen assets of Russian oligarchs. Greene’s rhetoric is very similar to Code Pink of the radical left, and she has cheered on the socialist organization and praised their Ukraine activities. Greene states “I’ve always said I’m not afraid of civil war in the GOP. I lean into it. “We must no longer serve the uniparty and their globalist agenda. Our country is run by stupid warmongers. . . “Americans do not support the war in Ukraine. Our country will never recover from this, and it must end. Americans are demanding a national divorce so we will be separated into red states and blue states.” The former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, responded “Ukraine was invaded for no reason but the Congresswoman says they ‘need to find peace not war.’ Incredible. This blame-the-victim argument is disgusting. Imagine saying this about victims of other crimes? Or civilians killed in other wars? Or those killed by other terrorists?” On March 17, 2022, Greene and 7 other House Republicans voted against suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. It passed by a 424-8 margin. Greene and 15 members of the Freedom Caucus also voted against tougher sanctions on Russia as well as a ban on the importation of Russian oil. She told Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) of the socialist squad “You voted to send money to the white Nazi army of Ukraine.” The president of Ukraine is Jewish and 5 of his relatives were killed in the Holocaust. The former prime minister is also Jewish, and it is Russia that is coping Hitler’s tactics.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has been responding to lunacy and lies coming from self described “national populists.” He is reluctant to criticize fellow Republicans but sometimes it’s necessary. For example, many conservatives were extremely disappointed with populist Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) comments on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” on Wednesday. Tuberville, the former Auburn football coach, repeated the same nonsense he told Laura Ingraham about the “Ukraine war racket.” He’s not only wrong but the Senator is copying ridiculous Code Pink arguments and blatantly false Kremlin claims that are frequently seen on the Tucker Carlson Network, InfoWars and the Gateway Pundit. Why is this happening? One factor is that Russian chief propagandist Margarita Simonyan openly admits the Kremlin is operating thousands of entities online that spread outrageous disinformation targeting the US population.
On Wednesday, Sen. Tommy Tuberville of the Armed Services Committee once again stunned the national security community. He told Steve Bannon that Russia from the very beginning has only wanted peace but it’s the U.S. that wants war! He claimed there have been no significant battles in Ukraine “in 7 or 8 months,” which is a shock to anyone who has been monitoring the war. Speaking of the Putin dictatorship, Tuberville said “He didn’t want Ukraine. He didn’t want Europe. Hell, he’s got enough land of his own. He just wants to make sure he does not have U.S. weapons in Ukraine.” If that was his goal, he achieved the exact opposite by launching the war. There would be no US or NATO weapons in Ukraine if 190,000 Russian troops had not crossed the border in February 2022. More than 500,000 Russian troops have died attacking Ukraine and they were not peace activists. The Senator doesn’t realize Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded eastern Ukraine at the same time. Putin never mentioned anything about U.S. weapons. The Senator also didn’t mention the tens of thousands of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, the deliberate targeting of the civilian population, blowing up dams, and committing numerous war crimes. Furthermore, Sen. Tuberville is repeating the nonsense claims of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who says “Putin everyday says I want to settle the war. And Zelensky has said we’re not going to negotiate.” The Putin peace plan is 30% of Ukraine now, time to regroup and rearm, and then coming back for the remaining 70%. There are now tens of thousands of tortured and murdered civilians, and beautiful major cities have been reduced to rubble. Obviously, Tuberville’s definition of “peace” is far different from ours. Apparently, the Senator is condemning Donald Trump who provided Ukraine with the Javelin anti-tank missiles that had a key role in halting the initial invasion. The Obama/Biden administration denied all arms sales to Ukraine for 8 years. That’s why Putin didn’t raise it as an issue. In addition, as Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized, Trump disagreed with Tuberville on the Ukraine military aid package and the House GOP adopted all of Trump’s recommendations. They are now law. Despite over two years of a hot war with massive casualties, Tuberville believes Ukraine should not fear Russia. The only peace Russia is interested in a huge piece of Ukraine. Putin says, “Russia’s borders do not stop anywhere,” and they never needed a pretext for aggression against their neighbors or other nations. Unprovoked Russian aggression is well known in: 1939 Poland 1939 Finland 1940 Latvia 1940 Lithuania and 1991 1940 Estonia 1940 Chad 1956 Hungary 1968 Czechoslovakia 1979 Afghanistan 1940, Moldova, also 1990 1992 Georgia, also 2008 2014, Ukraine, also 2022 Tuberville says, “We should be negotiating peace, not funding and fueling war.” The U.S. and NATO assistance isn’t about fueling war but supporting a nation resisting blatant Russian aggression. Putin frequently praises Josef Stalin and thinks the collapse of the USSR and Russian communism was a great tragedy. He has been clear about the desires of the Axis of Evil. He wants a a world without NATO and the end of the post WW II system of collective security. He wants the U.S. confined to the Western Hemisphere so Russia can rebuild the borders of former Soviet Union and be able to do what it likes without condemnation or oversight. He wants China to control Asia and Iran to dominate the Middle East. The Berlin Wall fell for a good reason, and it would be foolish to rebuild it – and all it represented. This war is about Russia’s imperialistic expansion, Ukraine’s cultural erasure, Black Sea control, the richest soil in Europe, abundant natural resources, the ability to directly attack NATO countries, and showing Russia’s long oppressed citizens that they can’t win freedom, human rights, and democracy with their own version of Ukraine’s Euro-Maidan Revolution. It unfortunately took them 16 months, but a strong bipartisan majority in the U.S. Congress finally supported the military aid package because they know if Vladimir Putin overran Ukraine, it wouldn’t be long before the Russian military crossed another border, where our men and women in uniform would be called upon to go and fight and defend as part of NATO. Why did it take 16 months? Because President Biden never made a national address to rally support and explain why it was necessary. He never made it clear why Ukraine military aid is in our national interest. Giving Ukrainians what they need to repel the Russian invasion was also the best way to send a message to the other rogue nations that America is still the leader of the free world, and we’re not going to tolerate their attempting to redraw international border lines by force. If Russia’s unprovoked aggression can be stopped it could change the world. It could well mean freedom for Belarus and Georgia, and after 34 years, Moldova might finally be free of Russian occupiers. Stopping Russian aggression will hopefully make Kazakhstan and Taiwan more secure, and it will help in the effort to overthrow dictators in Iran and Syria. Without Russia, Africa might finally be coup-free, and perhaps Afghanistan will rise again. It took them a long time, but our NATO allies have finally stepped up and have contributed more than America, even accounting for the most recent aid package. In addition, Tuberville’s claims about the “war racket” are wrong, especially when he refers to “pallets of cash.” That was the fatally flawed Obama/Biden Iran nuclear deal. With Ukraine, the aid is in the form of military equipment, assigned a value, and then donated. That equipment is usually older and would have been replaced in the next few years anyway. Most of the U.S. arsenal was procured for exactly this reason: to fight the Russians. President Biden could have immediately donated tanks from our stockpile, but his preference was to build new ones. 68% of the funds in the Ukraine aid bill remain in the United States and they are being used to rebuild the brittle American defense industrial base by producing new equipment. That is a major reason the Ukraine aid bill passed the Senate with 70 votes. Sen. Tuberville also claims we should ignore Ukraine because of problems related to American border security. We can both support Ukraine and secure our border. We are America. We are a superpower, and we can achieve both goals. The problem with U.S. border security has never been about money. It is that practically all Democratic Party politicians are vehemently opposed to a border wall. Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the outlook of many nations. We can already see the end result is finally achieving adequate defense spending by our NATO allies. 18 NATO nations are now meeting their spending pledges which is up from 3 in 2014. Poland will be spending 5% of GDP on defense while other EU nations will be moving to 3%, which is now the American level. If current U.S. spending projections continue, the United States will fall to 2.4%. Many foreign leaders repeatedly rejected demands to significantly increase defense spending, but now the Russian invasion has had a unifying effect. They realize the “peace dividend” of the 1990s is long over and there is no going back to the reformist Boris Yeltsin era in Russia. Now we are seeing the biggest transformation since the end of the Cold War in 1989. Europe has finally been startled awake, and it understands the importance of burden sharing with the United States. Tuberville’s peace at any price mentality has given way to an awareness that increased military power is needed in the United States and Europe. A continent on autopilot, lulled into amnesia, has been galvanized into an immense effort to save freedom. Now, the Baltic Sea has become Lake NATO, and there is a big strategic shift in Europe. Germany, racked by guilt of WW II, previously bought cheap Russian gas and waved away the threat of Putin. Germany has had to eliminate its dependence on Russia for 55 percent of its gas. It has been forced to contemplate a partial decoupling from China, an enormous market for German cars, to reduce its strategic vulnerability. Credible deterrence won the Cold War, but credible deterrence eroded sharply in its aftermath as defense budgets were cut. Reagan had the right answer in promoting peace through strength policies and we hope Sen. Tuberville will realize Russian appeasement will not bring peace. Populists such as Steve Bannon, Sen. Tuberville, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), and the House Freedom Caucus are all wrong. America’s donated military equipment has not been wasted and aggression by Russia, China, Iran and others in the Axis of Evil should not ignored.
The ongoing struggle between conservatives and national populists on defense and foreign policy issues is integral to the major battle for the heart and soul of the GOP, and we are not going to predict a winner. If America were a European nation, conservatives and national populists would be in separate political parties. There is common ground on many domestic, spending and border security issues, but populists often agree with the left on national security policy. You constantly see it on Steve Bannon’s War Room, the Tucker Carlson Network, InfoWars and in the Gateway Pundit. Steve Bannon says his goal is to turn the GOP into a national populist party advocating isolationism and protectionism. After numerous populist candidates won GOP primaries, Bannon claimed Republicans would gain 100 House seats in the 2022 election because they had “defied the GOP establishment.” We wish his prediction about GOP gains was accurate but there was no significant red wave in 2022. For over a year, Bannon repeatedly said “If we put together a unity ticket of Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy, Jr. it would be insurmountable — we would bring over many of the national populists on the Left.” Bannon has repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to reach out for support from the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party. He told Bill Maher, “I like Bernie. He’s a populist. I don’t agree with his solutions. . . but one of the biggest parts is identifying the problem. I think Bernie has identified the problem. . . We can win by bashing the two parties and beating the uniparty.” He says we must move beyond “Reaganism,” and “the old conservative vs. liberal battles”. Bannon, Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk, Candace Owens and Alex Jones envision common ground with elements of the radical left in forging a new populism. Regarding Ukraine, Kennedy says, “The Russians were acting in good faith” and said Biden should apologize to Vladimir Putin who frequently talks about his goal of wiping Ukraine off the map along with its language and culture. Putin says he wants a “New Russia” which will rebuild the USSR. Charlie Kirk of Turning Point also advocated a Trump/Kennedy ticket and said “We need a realignment outside the two-party system. I believe there is a new coalition being built — not a coalition that is right versus left, but instead, bottom-up versus the ruling oligarchy regime.” Kirk also wants to move beyond “Reaganism” and traditional conservative causes. The American Conservative magazine, which was founded by Pat Buchanan, has also highly praised Kennedy and his call for foreign policy isolationism. Party unity is very important, and we believe in Reagan’s “big tent” vision of the GOP but there are times we must speak out. For example, Pat Buchanan was exceedingly popular on the right in the 1990s but he embarrassed our cause by describing Adolph Hitler as a man of “great courage” and saying claims about the Holocaust are wrong because “diesel engines do not emit enough carbon monoxide to kill anybody.” Like Putin Republicans today, Buchanan defended Hitler by saying the Nazi leader sought no empire or wider war with Europe, and his goal was German unification. He thought it was wrong for America to enter World War II. Conservatives strongly believe Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and radical Islamists are significant regional threats. They emphasize that national security threats are growing and want an increased focus on military modernization and readiness programs. America’s time window for rearmament is far shorter than many believe. Numerous conservatives strongly disagree with the tactics of the House Freedom Caucus and populist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) who claims Putin is “protecting Christianity and traditional values.” On June 4, 2024, 46 House Republicans voted for Rep. Greene’s appropriations amendment to defund NATO. This was two days before the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Many of the lawmakers who want to end NATO are members of the Freedom Caucus and we understand why some conservatives call it the Putin Caucus. National security conservatives know Russia is a lying and cruel terrorist state which is waging an unprovoked war of aggression. A billboard in Moscow has this Putin quote: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.” Fabian Hoffman, PhD, says Russia will not be satisfied with conquering Ukraine and will next target a NATO member nation. Hoffman writes “They will follow the Gerasimov doctrine. With their maximum demand, the Russians manage to get at least half of what they didn’t have before. And that is their success. “Russia does not need to match NATO’s conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amid mounting psychological pressure, Russia can walk away with a victory. . . The long game has always been Putin’s trump card. “It’s what emboldened him. Our lack of preparedness is encouraging Russia. Since 2014, Russian intellectuals have debated extensively and publicly how to win a war against NATO. Where is our debate? . . “Russia certainly has the potential to beat us in war because we can defeat ourselves with infighting. “If we were taking the China/Russia/Iran threat seriously we would be ramping up military production dramatically – both in the U.S. and NATO-Europe. Progress has been terribly slow. The U.S. shipbuilding industry has collapsed and there is no serious interest in businesses related to heavy machinery, steel, metals, and chemicals which are desperately needed for an adequate defense industrial base. “Not only are problems being ignored, but in America many people in both political parties want us to do nothing. “We went through the same arguments during the Cold War as the West increasingly relied on US nuclear deterrence for security. “Those who advocated conventional readiness were dismissed as warmongers and globalists. A hard, denial frontline defense is needed for deterrence during crises. The way to begin is through military modernization.” The West did practically nothing when Russia seized 20% of Georgia in 2008, illegally annexed Crimea and attacked Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in 2014. The current war in Ukraine is teaching Russia a crucial lesson – the West lacks resolve if there is not an immediate victory. At the same time, China is pressing ahead with a rapid and unprecedented military expansion while Iran is surrounding Israel with its “string of fire” strategy. Now that sanctions are not being enforced, Iran is well funded and intent on destabilizing the Middle East. We are much closer to war with China and Russia than people realize. Unfortunately, populist or libertarian Senators such Rand Paul (R-KY) and Mike Lee (R-UT) downplay the threat and want to cut the defense budget and end the post WW II system of collective security. Both Senators are strongly attacking the new Senate GOP Armed Services budget which recommends a major focus on military modernization and says our technological edge is questionable given the fragility of supply lines needed to support it. Sen. Paul has praised a proposal by the Center for International Policy to cut defense spending by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years. We hope conservatives and populists will unite because the challenges are massive. In 2015, the national debt was $18 trillion but now it will soon be $35 trillion, and the interest costs already exceed the entire defense budget. Mandatory spending has been ignored for 25 years and while even Republicans hate to hear it, all of George W. Bush’s fiscal warnings in January 2005 were correct. It should have been addressed at the time, but Democrats claimed there was no problem. Now mandatory spending will soon be 80% of the budget. In unity there is strength, and we hope the GOP civil war will calm down, but we are not optimistic.
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