The population report released by the Census Bureau on Wednesday afternoon was excellent news for the Republican Party. This is the last report the Census Bureau will make prior to next years count. The data shows Americans are continuing to relocate in low tax and business friendly sun belt states where new jobs are being created.
The high taxes and burdensome business regulations of the Northeast and the Midwest are once again resulting in significant population losses. The next official population count will be released a year from now, and the changes will be reflected in the 2012 election.
At a minimum the population shift will most likely mean 12 seats will shift from the north to the south and west. My prediction is that the 2012 election will result in a 10 seat House gain for the GOP. I am basing this on the new census figures, as well as the analysis provided by Polidata and Election Data Services.
A census has been conducted every 10 years since 1790, and it is a Constitutional requirement.
In the past year alone, Texas grew by 478,000 which is almost the size of a Congressional District. The Lone Star state is expected to receive four new districts as a result of the upcoming census. That could change and the alternative would mean three new seats for Texas and two for Arizona.
To win control of Congress in 2010, Republicans would need to gain 11 Senate seats and 40 House seats. A 25 to 30 seat House gain in 2010 could well lead to control of the House of Representatives in 2012. Washington is the only Blue State to gain a Congressional District, and it is far from certain Democrats will win the expected new seat in the suburban Seattle area.
Who ever is in charge of the states in 2011 will be drawing the new Congressional District maps, and once again the outlook is favorable for Republicans. In Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Texas — Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion. In Nevada, Democrats control both chambers, while a Republican is governor.
Based on the data in new report the probable gainers and losers in the next election are as follows:
North Carolina (1)
South Carolina (1)
New York (1)
New Jersey (1)