As Milton Friedman use to say, “Predictions are extremely difficult, especially when they’re about the future.” The article I posted a year ago today is listed below, and I definitely did not win the Crystal Ball Award. In fact, my overall track record in making these predictions has not been impressive. This year my score was 13 Wrong, 6 Correct and 6 Partials. I should definitely stick to politics rather than sports where I was practically wiped out.
My various predictions are listed below. I deserve credit in 2009 for being among the first to forecast the GOP triumphs in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests. My prediction of bipartisan compromises on health care, global warming and the deficit were all wrong. A year ago I did not foresee Obama’s 34% drop among Independents, nor the complete collapse of the global warming consensus.
My prediction that Obama would listen to Vice President Biden on Afghan and national security policy was also wrong. I am optimistic as the 2010 campaign year begins, but I also know that two years ago practically no one was predicting a 2008 Obama landslide.
- Deficit reduction will be a major theme of President Obama’s State of the Union address. He will break his promise about not raising taxes on those making less than $200,000. He will surprise the nation with a call for a VAT or national sales tax to reduce the deficit. WRONG, but he would have been wise to focus on deficit reduction.
- The health care reform bill without the public option will be signed on February 2nd, and the President will present the pen he uses to sign the bill to Vicki Kennedy, the widow of the late Senator. PARTIAL, the health care bill was passed without the public option but it was not done by February 2nd.
- Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire for health reasons, and there will be considerable pressure on the President to name another woman. He will not pick Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D-MI), but will receive solid GOP support with his selection of Janice Rogers Brown from the DC Court of Appeals. WRONG, she is still on the Court.
- Fidel Castro, Osama bin Laden and Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) will die. PARTIAL, Senator Byrd passed away.
- Democrats will continue to control Congress, but the GOP will win the old Senate seats of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, as well as Al Gore’s former House seat. PARTIAL, the GOP did win the Obama and Gore seats while it foolishly threw away a Delaware victory.
- Majority Leader Harry Reid will be defeated after spending $26 million. WRONG, he had the highest negative rating of any Senator who was ever re-elected. Even the liberals were disappointed by his debate performance.
- Republicans will win in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, which will portend a 2012 electoral lock. The 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee will come from one of these states. CORRECT
- In December of 2010, former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) will have a 6 point lead over Obama. PARTIAL, as of December 14th, the averages of all national polls give Mitt Romney a slight lead over Barack Obama, 45.6% to 44.3%.
- The GOP stars in the 2010 class will be new Senators Rob Portman (OH) and Kelly Ayotte (NH). CORRECT
- Cap-and-trade and union card check will be defeated, and the Patriot Act and FISA will remain intact. Guantanamo Bay will still be open. There will be no action on immigration. CORRECT
- The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates two times. GDP growth for 2010 will be 2.2%.WRONG
- David Cameron will be the next UK Prime Minister but the Tory majority will not be impressive. CORRECT
- A terrorist attack on Japan’s bullet train will be foiled by America’s Patriot Act. WRONG, but it was a good year for the Patriot Act.
- The Jay Leno Show will be canceled, but he will move to ABC to compete with The Tonight Show in the 11:30 pm time slot. WRONG
- Anne Hathaway and Reese Witherspoon will both receive engagement rings. PARTIAL, Witherspoon is engaged.
- Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson and Jessica Simpson will all have second marriages. PARTIAL, Simpson is engaged.
- Mariah Carey will be pregnant. CORRECT, she is expecting twins.
- The surprise upset in the Academy Awards will be Emily Blunt’s win for Best Actress for her role in “The Young Victoria.” WRONG, This was not a serious prediction, I just wanted the movie to be successful.
- Anderson Cooper will admit he is a homosexual. WRONG
- The New York Yankees will win the World Series. Prince Fielder will hit 53 home runs and win the MVP. WRONG, the San Francisco Giants won 4 to 1. Fielder hit 32 home runs. The MVP went to Josh Hamilton (Rangers) and Joey Votto (Reds).
- The Green Bay Packers will be the Super Bowl champions. WRONG, New Orleans Saints 31 to 17.
- The Washington Capitals will win the Stanley Cup. WRONG, Chicago Blackhawks 4 to 3.
- The Los Angeles Lakers will be the NBA champs. CORRECT
- An African team will reach the World Cup finals. WRONG, the winner was Spain.
- Tiger Woods will play in the Masters, but he will not do any media interviews during 2010. WRONG, Phil Mickelson won.
- Tareq and Michaele Salahi will be the stars of the White House Correspondents Dinner. WRONG, but they did remain in the media spotlight.