New Census Data: Can Obama Be Defeated in 2012? by Gregory Hilton


The new U.S. Census data has now been released and the 12 new Congressional Districts are shown on this map. All of my predictions last night were correct except 1) They created 12 new seats instead of 11. 2) It was WA and SC that gained seats rather than CO. 3) The final state to lose a seat was PA. One seat gains were made by AZ, GA, NV, WA, SC and UT. Two for FL and four for TX.
The one seat loses are in IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MO, PA and NJ. The two seat losses are in NY and OH. States with lower taxes, smaller government and fewer unions saw the most population growth. The average top personal income tax rate among gainers is 116 percent lower than among losers. The total state and local tax burden is nearly one-third lower, as is per capita government spending. In eight of ten losers, workers can be forced to join a union as a condition of employment. In 7 of the 8 gainers, workers are given a choice whether to join or contribute financially to a union.
The 2012 Presidential Campaign
Can President Obama be defeated for re-election in 2012? John McCain received only 173 electoral college votes the last time and Obama defeated him by 193 votes. The President won several states by very small margins. To recapture the White House, the GOP needs to build back its traditional base which would give it another 84 electoral votes from Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and census reapportionment (6). That would bring Republicans to 257, or 13 votes short.
The most important battleground states will be Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18) and Colorado (9). The Obama campaign knows this and they will have a $1 billion budget to prevent it from happening. I am not going to predict the GOP nominee but an excellent case can be made for selecting Sen. Rob Portman (OH) or Gov. Tom Corbett (PA) as the vice presidential nominee.

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