2010 Election Predictions – The GOP Tsunami: 79 House Seats, 10 Senate Seats and 12 Governors by Gregory Hilton

The GOP election Tsunami means help will soon be on the way for a struggling economy. President Obama will be able to veto legislation, but the days of the Democratic super majority, stimulus spending, and the Capitol Hill favor factory are over. The new GOP lawmakers will demand deficit reduction, an end to many burdensome regulations and continuation of all the Bush tax cuts.

My predictions for the 2010 election are based on the most current survey research data and the “incumbent rule.” This is determined on the Friday before a Tuesday election. It says incumbents who are running under 50% and do not have a 6% lead will lose. With this in mind, I have awarded many seats to the GOP where the Democratic incumbent still has the lead. Undecided voters tend to break for the challenger. Because of the so-called enthusiasm gap, I am also predicting a GOP turnout 8% higher then the Democrats.
There are a number of districts without survey data and I had to rely on statewide polls and intuition. A few predictions can be described as optimistic guess work on my part. For example, there have been no polls in New York’s 13th district, and my prediction had to be based on past voting behavior.
The important point is that we are clearly witnessing the end of the Pelosi/Reid era and the Democratic super majority. In the Senate that ended with Scott Brown’s (R-MA) election last January. Brown will not always vote with conservatives, but his election brought an end to the Democratic policy of running the Senate by a series of cloture motions. Conservatives who now say they regret voting for Brown are very foolish.I do not believe Speaker Pelosi will be the Democratic leader in the next Congress.
That post will instead go to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (MD) who is far more willing to compromise and is not as partisan as Pelosi.I also hope John Boehner will not become a Republican version of Pelosi. The 2012 elections are important but our nation has great problems and we need to make progress for the benefit of the American people. I am predicting a ten seat gain for Republicans in the U.S. Senate, but I realize many races are very close.
It would not be a surprise if Democrats were to win in West Virginia, Washington, Illinois and Colorado. Most experts are awarding West Virginia and Washington to the Democrats.
If I am correct, ten seats would give the GOP control of the Senate. As I have noted many times, the loss of a sure win in Delaware was a serious blow. In the House, most of the experts (Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Stuart Rothenberg and the New York Times) are predicting a 50 seat gain. Real Clear Politics believes it will be 63 seats. I am being far more optimistic than everyone except Dick Morris who predicted a 100 seat gain six weeks ago.
The most vulnerable seats are held by Democrats who won during the past four years and now represent traditionally Republican areas. They benefited from opposition to the Iraq war and the global economic crisis of 2008. If I am accurate, the number of moderate Blue Dog Democrats will be cut in half. In making these predictions, I awarded the GOP seats where the challenger trails significantly in the amount of money raised and in name ID.
In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats and recaptured the House for the first time since 1994. In 2008 practically all Democrats benefited from Barack Obama’s coattails. Rep. Joseph Cao (LA) is a certain GOP loss and Rep. Charles Djou (HI) could join him. Delaware will also be a Democratic pick-up and the race to succeed Rep. Mark Kirk (IL) is very close.
A gain of 79 seats would result in 257 Republicans and 177 Democrats in the upcoming 112th Congress. It would mean the complete reversal of the present Congress, which included 257 Democrats in December of 2009. There were only 230 Republicans in the 104th Congress. That was in 1994 when the GOP gained 54 seats and took power for the first time in 40 years. My list is divided by open seats and vulnerable Democrats in alphabetical order.

U.S. Senate – A Gain of Ten Republicans

John Hoeven (North Dakota)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
Sharron Angle (Nevada)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
Ken Buck (Colorado)
Dino Rossi (Washington)
John Raese (West Virginia)

Governors – A Gain of 12 State Houses

Paul LePage (Maine)
Tom Corbett (Pennsylvania)
John Kasich (Ohio)
Terry Branstad (Iowa)
Mary Fallin (Oklahoma)
Bill Haslam (Tennessee)
Rick Snyder (Michigan)
Bill Brady (Illinois)
San Brownback (Kansas)
Matt Mead (Wyoming)
Susana Martinez (New Mexico)
Scott Walker (Wisconsin)

U.S. House of Representatives – A 79 Seat GOP Tsunami

* 16 Open Democratic Seats That Will Switch to the GOP:
* District Incumbent/Party

* AR 1st (Open) Marion Berry (D)
* AR 2nd (Open) Vic Snyder (D)
* IN 8th (Open) Brad Ellsworth (D)
* KS 3rd (Open) Dennis Moore (D)
* LA 3rd (Open) Charlie Melancon (D)
* MA 10th (Open) Bill Delahunt (D)
* MI 1st (Open) Bart Stupak (D)
* NH 2nd (Open) Paul Hodes (D)
* NY 29th (Open) Eric Massa (D)
* PA 7th (Open) Joe Sestak (D)
* RI 1st (Open) Patrick Kennedy (D)
* TN 6th (Open) Bart Gordon (D)
* TN 8th (Open) John Tanner (D)
* WA 3rd (Open) Brian Baird (D)
* WV 1st (Open) Alan Mollohan (D)
* WI 7th (Open) David Obey (D)

* 66 Democratic Incumbents Who Will Lose:
* District Incumbent/Party

* AL 2nd Bobby Bright (D)
* AZ 1st Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
* AZ 5th Harry Mitchell (D)
* AZ 7th Raul Grijalva (D)
* AZ 8th Gabrielle Giffords (D)
* CA 11th Jerry McNerney (D)
* CA 20th Jim Costa (D)
* CO 4th Betsy Markey (D)
* CO 3rd John Salazar (D)
* CO 7th Earl Perlmutter (D)
* CT 4th Jim Himes (D)
* CT 5th Chris Murphy (D)
* FL 2nd Allen Boyd (D)
* FL 8th Alan Grayson (D)
* FL 22nd Ron Klein (D)
* FL 24th Suzanne Kosmas (D)
* GA 2nd Sanford Bishop (D)
* GA 8th Jim Marshall (D)
* ID 1st Walt Minnick (D)
* IL 11th Debbie Halvorson (D)
* IL 14th Bill Foster (D)
* IL 17th Phil Hare (D)
* IN 2nd Joe Donnelly (D)
* IN 9th Baron Hill (D)
* KY 6th Ben Chandler (D)
* MD 1st Frank Kratovil (D)
* MI 7th Mark Schauer (D)
* MI 9th Gary Peters (D)
* MN 8th Jim Oberstar (D)
* MS 1st Travis Childers (D)
* MS 4th Gene Taylor (D)
* MO 4th Ike Skelton (D)
* NJ 3rd John Adler (D)
* NV 3rd Dina Titus (D)
* NH 1st Carol Shea-Porter (D)
* NM 1st Martin Heinrich (D)
* NM 2nd Harry Teague (D)
* NY 13th Michael McMahon (D)
* NY 19th John Hall (D)
* NY 20th Scott Murphy (D)
* NY 23rd Bill Owens (D)
* NC 2nd Bob Etheridge (D)
* NC 7th Mike McIntyre (D)
* NC 8th Larry Kissell (D)
* ND 1st Earl Pomeroy (D)
* OH 1st Steve Driehaus (D)
* OH 6th Charlie Wilson (D)
* OH 15th Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
* OH 16th John Boccieri (D)
* OH 18th Zach Space (D)
* OR 5th Kurt Schrader (D)
* PA 3rd Kathleen Dahlkemper (D)
* PA 8th Patrick Murphy (D)
* PA 10th Christopher Carney (D)
* PA 11th Paul Kanjorski (D)
* SC 5th John Spratt (D)
* SD 1st Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)
* TN 4th Lincoln Davis (D)
* TX 17th Chet Edwards (D)
* TX 23rd Ciro Rodriquez (D)
* VA 2nd Glenn Nye (D)
* VA 5th Tom Perriello (D)
* VA 9th Rick Boucher (D)
* WA 2nd Rick Larson (D)
* WA 9th Adam Smith (D)
* WI 3rd Ron Kind (D)
* WI 8th Steve Kagen (D)

One response to “2010 Election Predictions – The GOP Tsunami: 79 House Seats, 10 Senate Seats and 12 Governors by Gregory Hilton

  1. More Jobs or More Government?

    Incumbent Congressman Jim Himes is for the same type of command-and-control policies that have consistently led to low growth and high structural unemployment in Eastern Europe in the twentieth century and in Western Europe today: his only problem with pork-barrel stimulus is that there has not been enough of it. His only concern with the healthcare bill is that it did not go far enough. He voted to adjourn congress without addressing January’s massive tax hikes.

    The incumbent is for unlimited government. On his watch, he voted for a government that increased borrowing by a trillion dollars a year. His answer is always the same: more government. More taxes, more spending, more job-killing regulation.

    Challenger Dan Debicella believes that there is a better way: he is for policies conducive to economic growth such as replacing the pork-barrel stimulus with a payroll tax cut. He opposes all tax increases and intrusive regulation that stifles job creation.

    Dan is for a constitutional, limited government. He would cap the size of the federal government at 20% of our gross domestic product. He would force politicians to make trade-offs between competing priorities instead of always growing the size government. He would reduce the number of government employees.

    If Dan Debicella shares your beliefs and you want to help him advance those beliefs in congress, then you can do so here: http://www.40seats.com/ct4 . Both sides should be able to agree that your choice is clear and it is important. What kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to continue down the current direction or do we think that there is a better way?

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