The 78 Most Vulnerable House Democratic Seats by Gregory Hilton

I compiled this list of the most vulnerable House Democrats after conducting interviews with some of the nation’s top election experts. I spoke to officials of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, numerous pundits and I reviewed a ream of polling data. As previously noted, the present outlook is the best for the GOP in 60 years.
That does not mean Republicans will capture 12 seats in the U.S. Senate similar to 1980, but it does mean the numbers have not been this favorable at this stage of any election in the past six decades. The 1980 and 1994 GOP tidal waves broke in mid-October.
Many of today’s vulnerable lawmakers came to Congress during the huge Democratic sweeps of 2006 and 2008. In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats and recaptured the House for the first time since 1994. In 2008 practically all Democrats benefited from Barack Obama’s coattails.
Now the national mood has shifted dramatically, and political earthquakes are being heard throughout Blue America. The GOP is not only winning in Blue states such as Michigan, but they are ahead in the gubernatorial race by an unprecedented 22%.
The most vulnerable seats are held by Democrats who won during the past four years and now hold traditionally Republican areas. The list below is not yet ranked based on polling data, but is instead divided by open seats and vulnerable Democrats in alphabetical order. I am also expecting the GOP to lose four seats.
If the present favorable outlook for Republicans turns into an election tsunami, this will be an excellent list of victims. Over 10 of the 15 open Democratic seats will almost certainly switch to the GOP, and I am now predicting a minimum House gain of 36 seats for the GOP.
15 Open Democratic Seats That Could Switch to the GOP
District Incumbent/Party
AR 1st (Open) Marion Berry (D)
AR 2nd (Open) Vic Snyder (D)
IN 8th (Open) Brad Ellsworth (D)
KS 3rd (Open) Dennis Moore (D)
LA 3rd (Open) Charlie Melancon (D)
MA 10th (Open) Bill Delahunt (D)
MI 1st (Open) Bart Stupak (D)
NH 2nd (Open) Paul Hodes (D)
NY 29th (Open) Eric Massa (D)
PA 7th (Open) Joe Sestak (D)
TN 6th (Open) Bart Gordon (D)
TN 8th (Open) John Tanner (D)
WA 3rd (Open) Brian Baird (D)
WV 1st (Open) Alan Mollohan (D)
WI 7th (Open) David Obey (D)
63 Most Vulnerable House Democratic Seats:
District Incumbent/Party
AL 2nd Bobby Bright (D)
AZ 1st Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ 5th Harry Mitchell (D)
AZ 8th Gabrielle Giffords (D)
CA 11th Jerry McNerney (D)
CO 4th Betsy Markey (D)
CO 3rd John Salazar (D)
CT 4th Jim Himes (D)
CT 5th Chris Murphy (D)
FL 2nd Allen Boyd (D)
FL 8th Alan Grayson (D)
FL 22nd Ron Klein (D)
FL 24th Suzanne Kosmas (D)
GA 8th Jim Marshall (D)
ID 1st Walt Minnick (D)
IL 11th Debbie Halvorson (D)
IL 14th Bill Foster (D)
IN 2nd Joe Donnelly (D)
IN 9th Baron Hill (D)
IA 3rd Leonard Boswell (D)
KY 3rd John Yarmuth (D)
KY 6th Ben Chandler (D)
MD 1st Frank Kratovil (D)
MI 7th Mark Schauer (D)
MI 9th Gary Peters (D)
MS 1st Travis Childers (D)
MN 1st Tim Walz (D)
MO 4th Ike Skelton (D)
NJ 3rd John Adler (D)
NV 3rd Dina Titus (D)
NH 1st Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NM 1st Martin Heinrich (D)
NM 2nd Harry Teague (D)
NY 1st Tim Bishop (D)
NY 13th Michael McMahon (D)
NY 19th John Hall (D)
NY 20th Scott Murphy (D)
NY 23rd Bill Owens (D)
NY 24th Michael Arcuri (D)
NY 25th Dan Maffei (D)
NC 8th Larry Kissell (D)
NC 11th Heath Shuler (D)
ND 1st Earl Pomeroy (D)
OH 1st Steve Driehaus (D)
OH 6th Charlie Wilson (D)
OH 13th Betty Sutton (D)
OH 15th Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
OH 16th John Boccieri (D)
OH 18th Zach Space (D)
OR 5th Kurt Schrader (D)
PA 3rd Kathleen Dahlkemper (D)
PA 4th Jason Altmire (D)
PA 8th Patrick Murphy (D)
PA 10th Christopher Carney (D)
PA 11th Paul Kanjorski (D)
PA 12th Mark Critz (D)
SC 5th John Spratt (D)
SD 1st Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)
TN 4th Lincoln Davis (D)
TX 17th Chet Edwards (D)
VA 2nd Glenn Nye (D)
VA 5th Tom Perriello (D)
WI 8th Steve Kagen (D)

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