Both the 2010 campaign and 2012 presidential race will be decided by independent voters in the industrial Midwest. In 2008, Republicans failed to carry even one state in the Big 10 conference. The gubernatorial races now show GOP leads in IL 6%, OH 5%, WI 8%, MI 7%, PA 15% and IA 17%.
The GOP has no vulnerable Senators, while 7 Democratic incumbents are now under 50%. The highest tier battleground is for blue collar independents in the Big 10. They voted decisively for Obama, and Wal-Mart has today released a survey of its shoppers that was jointly conducted by a prominent GOP and Democratic firm. The GOP has gained 20% among these voters, and only 14% of them approve of Obamacare while 61% are in opposition to the Democratic Congress. It is difficult to imagine how Obama could be re-elected if he is unable to carry PA and OH.
Wisconsin Governor’s Race
We all know 2010 is a good year for the GOP, but some of the survey results we are now seeing from the heart of Blue America are shocking. The Wisconsin GOP has not run a successful statewide campaign since 1998, and liberal Democrats have been in firm control for almost a decade. Wisconsin has voted for Democrats in the last six presidential elections and hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1986. State GOP Chairman Reince Priebus says “We have been absolutely clobbered in recent elections.”
Now the liberals are losing by large margins, and unlike the past, the GOP has not nominated a moderate. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker is a solid conservative who has vetoed every spending increase and is committed to rolling back taxes. Walker continues to have a significant lead in the gubernatorial race over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.
Illinois is Now Number One.
They have beaten California, which has passed the baton. Thanks to its Democratic legislature and Governor, Illinois is now the worst credit risk in America. They have not balanced a budget in a decade and the state debt is close to the borderline between junk and investment grade.
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
The Arizona GOP Senate primary is not until August 24th, but Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) renomination now appears to be secure. The race was close but many conservative activists are now dumping former Rep. J.D. Hayworth. A 2007 TV infomercial has surfaced (see below link) in which Hayworth tells viewers they can rake in big bucks from the government by applying for federal grants that do not have to be paid back. Tabitha Hale of Freedom Works is one of many Hayworth supporters who abandoned him today:
He is a total fraud. He’s a sell out, period. . . He will be a huge liability for the conservative movement. I have no interest in seeing him elected. . . The conservative movement is not responsible for McCain. We would be responsible for Hayworth. I’m not willing to be responsible for someone who is a) crazy and b) not conservative.