Daily Archives: June 3, 2010

Carly Fiorina’s Strong Surge Will Result in GOP Senate Primary Victory on Tuesday by Gregory Hilton

PHOTO: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Sen. John McCain are shown during the 2008 campaign. Fiorina has a huge lead in the GOP Senate primary and is expected to receive the nomination on Tuesday to oppose Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) who is seeking her 4th term.

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has clearly pulled ahead in the GOP primary for the nomination to oppose Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA). The ballotting is on Tuesday, and Fiorina has markedly outspent her primary rivals. This was especially true during the past month and Fiorina has loaned her campaign $5.5 million.
Fiorina’s TV ad campaign has resulted in a significant surge of support. Former Congressman Tom Campbell held the lead for several months, but his campaign collapsed in late May. Fiorina and Campbell were in a statistical tie on May 10th, but by the 24th a KABC/SurveyUSA poll had Fiorina at 46%, Campbell 23% and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 11%. Continue reading

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U.S. Senate Battleground: GOP Retains Lead, But Democrats Are Making Gains Among Independents by Gregory Hilton

PHOTO: Joe the Plumber (Joe Wurzelbacher) who achieved fame during the 2008 presidential campaign is shown after endorsing former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R-NV) in the U.S. Senate primary. Angle has spoken at over 40 Tea Party gatherings and is expected to win tomorrow. Her controversial views could result in the re-election of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Both of Angle’s primary opponents perform far better against Reid.

The outlook for the Republican Party continues to be optimistic, but there are now some storm warnings on the horizon. Republicans lost independent voters by significant margins in 2006 and 2008, but this year the political outlook has changed dramatically because of GOP gains among independents. Republicans continue to have the lead among independents nationally, but their margins are diminishing in several of the key battleground Senate races.
Senate candidate Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to have the lead, but his margin has collapsed by 18% in a three week period. His controversial statement on the 1964 Civil Rights Act resulted in every Kentucky Republican State Senator co-sponsoring a resolution strongly endorsing the bill.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) continues to have high negative ratings, but national Republicans are now worried that he could beat Sharron Angle because of her controversial views.
Angle is a former Assemblywoman and is expected to win tomorrow’s GOP primary. Similar to Rand Paul, her victory will be a tremendous triumph for the Tea Party movement.
The Tea Party Express was also out in force at last month’s Utah State Republican Convention which denied Senator Bob Bennett (R) a slot on the primary ballot. The ideological outlook of the delegates was reflected by the fact that over 60% of them said they would oppose the renomination of Sen. Orrin Hatch in 2012.
Hatch is considered one of the most conservative members of the upper body. Similar to Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, Senate candidates Mike Lee (R-UT) and Chuck DeVore (R-CA) have made isolationist statements. They both have spoken of a need to pull U.S. conventional forces out of Afghanistan.
DeVore is expected to come in third place in tomorrow’s primary. The GOP nomination will go to former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA). Republican primary voters will reject former Rep. Tom Campbell who is running six points ahead of Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in recent surveys. Fiorina has been endorsed by former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) and the National Right to Life Committee, but it has always been difficult for a pro-life candidate to win statewide in California.
The Good News for the GOP
The Gallup Poll generic ballot released on June 1st gives Republicans a 49-43 advantage, which is the best the party has done since 1950. The GOP has gained 16% since 2008, and if the election was held today Republicans would pick up 46 seats and would control the House of Representatives.
The Bad News for the GOP
In addition to the alarm bells in Nevada, Kentucky and California, the GOP leads in Senate races in Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Florida and Ohio have been diminished. The decline has come overwhelmingly from independent voters. These are the voters who gave Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) a 32% lead over Martha Coakley, Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA) a 30% lead over Creigh Deeds, and Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) a 23% lead over former Gov. Jon Corzine.
According to a survey released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP), Democrats are still losing independents in 7 of the 9 key Senate races. The difference is that their average loss among independents has been reduced from 15% to 7%. This is also a huge difference from the average 28% lead which was seen a few months ago in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
A spokesman for the Democratic PPP firm said today:

Democrats still have a lot of ground to pick up with independents but things are looking much better than they were six months ago. Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) are actually now leading by small margins among independents in our most recent polls. We have also seen a significant increase in independent support for Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) and Elaine Marshall (D-NC).

Another Rand Paul?: The Tea Party Surge May Re-Elect Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) by Gregory Hilton

PHOTO: Jon Ralston moderates a debate among Republican U.S. Senate candidates Sharron Angle, John Chachas, Chad Christensen, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian at the KVBC studios in Las Vegas.

In two polls out today, former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R-NV) has taken the lead in Tuesday’s primary for the nomination to oppose U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). According to the Suffolk University survey, Angle has 33%, Danny Tarkanian 26% and former State Sen. Sue Lowden 25%. The DailyKos/Research 2000 poll has Angle leading with 34%, Lowden at 25% and Tarkanian with 24%.
Angle has been endorsed by the Tea Party Express, the Club for Growth and Gun Owners of America. Angle was receiving just 5% of the primary vote prior to the April 15th Tea Party endorsement which catapulted her candidacy and increased her support by 20% in one month. Continue reading