My Advice for the Democratic Party by Gregory Hilton

The 2010 election is still a year away, but the first filing deadline is in six weeks. Many things can change in 12 months but the campaign season begins with a bleak outlook for Democrats. President Obama’s approval rating has declined by a staggering 30%. The Cook Political Report, which is published by a Democrat, says a 30 seat Democratic House loss is possible.
The Republican Party has some weak and underfunded Senate candidates, but disapproval of the Pelosi/Reid agenda is so high that the GOP has now taken the lead in all of the battleground states: Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Connecticut, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas. Rudy Giuliani has a 56 to 33% lead in the New York governor’s race, and our prospects for state house in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa are excellent. It has been a long time since Republicans have run this well in the industrial Midwest.
The program the Democrats are pushing in Congress will only result in further setbacks for them. The enactment of the House passed versions of health care reform, cap and trade and additional stimulus spending will guarantee a massive defeat for the Democratic Party. We clearly warned them about the electoral implications of this liberal agenda.
Democrats can come back and President Obama can be re-elected but they have to make some abrupt changes. The stimulus spending program will result in at least $9 trillion in debt by 2019. They need to concentrate on deficit reduction and forget about the economy killing cap and trade bill. Their problems will grow significantly if the budget busting health care reform proposals are enacted.
Democrats are hiding the true costs of this bill, but Americans will realize a year from now that the legislation will do nothing to contain costs. It reduces the profitability of treating Medicare patients and providers will move away from this type of coverage. Raising capital gains taxes to pay for health care will damage our prospects for economic growth and job creation.
Democrats should listen to the wisdom of Robert Samuelson in today’s Washington Post: “Their sweeping overhaul of the health care system — which Congress is halfway toward enacting — would almost certainly make matters worse. It would create new, open-ended medical entitlements that threaten higher deficits and would do little to suppress surging health costs. The disconnect between what President Obama says and what he’s doing is so glaring that most people could not abide it. The president, his advisers and allies have no trouble. But reconciling blatantly contradictory objectives requires them to engage in willful self-deception, public dishonesty, or both.”
The best news for Democrats would be the defeat of Obamacare. If they go back to the drawing board they will find a Republican Party which is eager to work with them on real cost controls, sensible reforms and solutions to the problem of the uninsured.
My advice is similar to that of Bill Daley who was Secretary of Commerce during the Clinton Administration. He was Chairman of Al Gore’s 2000 campaign and his brother is Mayor of Chicago. Bill Daley says it is essential for Democrats to steer a more moderate course. His message is backed up by reams of polling data. As the Democratic Party moves to the left the independent vote shifts rapidly to the Republican column. A real warning sign is that Obama’s approval rating among independents is now down to 41%.
“On the question of which party is best suited to manage the economy, there has been a 30-point swing toward Republicans since November 2008. . . If anything, the Democrats’ salvation may lie in the fact that Republicans seem even more hell-bent on allowing their radical wing to drag the party away from the center,” Daley says. He concludes “While it may be too late to avoid some losses in 2010, it is not too late to avoid the kind of rout that redraws the political map.”

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