Liberal Parties are Losing in Europe by Gregory Hilton

The pro-labor Social Democrats are headed for their worst ever showing in the September 27th German elections. A poll released today gives German Chancellor Angela Merkel a 57% to 18% lead over her liberal opponent. Labour has ruled the UK since 1993 but they will be tossed out at the next election. The 1979 victory of Margaret Thatcher in the UK was a precursor of the 1980 arrival of Ronald Reagan.The Tories are now well ahead in Britain.
In France the party has declined rapidly in a few years. In Italy the only reason Prime Minister Silvio Berlesconi has survived a major sex scandal is because the liberals are so weak. The victory of European conservatives does not mean the right wing will win here. The main problem is that people think the liberals have no economic competence. The high tax no growth message of the left is finally collapsing in the EU. This is change we can believe in.

Should Republicans Shut Down the Senate Over Health Care by Gregory Hilton

Democrats definitely do not have the 60 votes necessary to pass the health care public option, and they may now resort to the reconciliation process which requires only 51 votes. Conservative activist Gary Bauer is urging a GOP shutdown of the Senate in response. He may be correct but my fear is what happened when Republicans shut down the government for 25 days in 1995 when a compromise could not be reached on the budget.
A shut down of the Senate is not analogous to a shut down of the government, but the 1995 effort resulted in a significant setback to the Republican Party. Bill Clinton appeared to be the winner in the budget battle, and it gave him significant advantages going into his re-election campaign. We should of course make a major effort to stop the public option, but if we fail after a reasonable time, it might be just as well to take this issue to the voters in 2010.
The government shutdown of ‘95 wound up closing down federal agencies which provided essential services and inconvenienced many people. This turned the tide against Republicans. Even if Democrats are successful with the reconciliation route, they would pay dearly for it in 2010. Republican could wait for the 2010 election because the public option is not scheduled to in effect until 2013.
On the other hand, Republicans could well have a mandate for a shutdown and they may not lose favor with constituents. Reconciliation would clearly be an undemocratic way of getting this done, when the majority of the public is opposed. During the 1994 shut down, Republicans were exposed because Speaker Gingrich added a personal bent to the proceedings which made it look extremely petty. Clinton got a major break when Speaker Gingrich made a widely-reported complaint about being snubbed by the White House. Former GOP Majority Leader Tom DeLay called it “the mistake of his Gingrich’s life”. Delay writes in his book, No Retreat, No Surrender:
“He told a room full of reporters that he forced the shutdown because Clinton had rudely made him and Bob Dole sit at the back of Air Force One…Newt had been careless to say such a thing, and now the whole moral tone of the shutdown had been lost. What had been a noble battle for fiscal sanity began to look like the tirade of a spoiled child. The revolution, I can tell you, was never the same.”
Gingrich’s complaint resulted in the perception that he was acting in a petty, egotistical manner. Later polling demonstrated that the event badly damaged Gingrich politically.

The 2010 Battleground: New Hampshire’s 1st District by Gregory Hilton

One of the major battlegrounds in the 2010 campaign will be New Hampshire’s first congressional district where Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is the GOP challenger against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH). Despite numerous public demands the incumbent has refused to hold town hall meetings during the August recess. She was a vocal anti-war activist before winning her seat in 2006, and essentially hounded then-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH) at his town halls in the years leading up to their race.
Shea-Porter was once forcibly removed from a Bush speech in Portsmouth for aggressive protesting while wearing a shirt that read, “Turn your back on Bush.” She always said the surge would fail, and once protested in front of the State House in Concord alongside demonstrators who compared Bush to a Nazi. She attended more of her opponents town hall meetings as a candidate that she has held during four years in Congress.
Mayor Guinta is now holding the Health Care Town Hall meeting that the incumbent has refused. Fox News placed her on a milk carton to dramatize the fact that she is not meeting with her constituents at public gatherings during the recess. She did find time this month to visit Pittsburgh, PA for the Daily Kos/Netroots Nation convention of liberal bloggers. She told them her constituents “would love to wait in line for medical care.” Shea-Porter has a 38% favorable, and a 37% unfavorable rating. She is vulnerable. Guinta, 38, has served two terms as Mayor and has won in the most Democratic part of the District.

Public Opinion Shift Demonstrated in Pennsylvania Senate Race by Gregory Hilton

Angry crowd jeers Specter By Luis Fabregas, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Friday, August 14, 2009
“http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/valleynewsdispatch/s_638276.html”

A major change is happening throughout the nation. As the article above notes, “About 1,500 people waited for hours under the beating sun for the town hall meeting on health care reform. The 200 or so allowed into the hall greeted the Republican-turned-Democrat with rounds of thundering jeers reminiscent of a Jerry Springer show. Some stood up and applauded, and so began a 90-minute showdown marked by passionate pleas for action, interruptions from angry hecklers and incessant chants that drowned out Specter’s call for civility. ‘Read the bill!’ the crowd roared. ‘We will be taxed!’
Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) is now trailing his GOP opponent by 12 points after having a huge lead a few months ago. The electorate is energized and the center is moving to the right. Unlike many of his colleagues, Senator Specter does deserve credit for showing up at town hall meetings during the August recess.
Specter has always had difficult re-election battles and he is a diligent campaigner. This powerful message goes way beyond the Specter campaign. The grassroots left was energized last year, and now the grassroots right has awakened. They may go back to sleep after cap and trade and the health care public option bite the dust. I am surprised this has happened so early in the Obama administration.
I hope Specter wins his primary. He switched parties but he is continuing his opposition to the union card check legislation. His primary opponent, Rep. Joseph Sestak (D-PA) is a retired Admiral. Obama is keeping the Pentagon budget constant without any increases. Sestak wants to make significant cuts in DoD spending and because he was a flag officer he will receive prominent attention from the news media.
The feedback for the town hall meetings demonstration that people are concerned about a deficit which has increased ten times from two years ago. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says they are “un-American,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid calls them “evil mongers,” and Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) says they are similar to the Nazi’s. One reason these lawmakers are angry is because independent voters are now siding 2-1 with opponents of the public option, the stimulus and cap and trade.

House Speaker Calls Protestors “Un-American” by Gregory Hilton

Citizen outrage is continuing at a fever pitch and Congressional schedules during the August recess are in sharp contrast to a year ago. Many lawmakers are in hiding and Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) is refusing to visit his district this month. Others have canceled town hall meetings in favor of a call in format where opposition voices can not be heard. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) did not show up for her event and it was taken over be her GOP opponent.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is calling right wing protesters “Un-American” in Monday’s “USAToday,” but their message is being heard. Despite the Speaker’s comments I haven’t seen any evidence that the outrage this August is fabricated “AstroTurf.” We do know the drug industry will be spending $150 million on TV commercials supporting the Obama plan, which is more than McCain spent during his presidential campaign. According to Craigslist, the Obama supporters are being paid: http://sacramento.craigslist.org/search/jjj?query=obama&catAbbreviation=jjj
Many moderate Democrats and a few liberals are now voicing doubts about moving such complex and costly legislation as health care reform and cap and trade too quickly. “No one wants to tell the Speaker that she’s moving too fast and they damn sure don’t want to tell the President,” says Rep. Charles Rangel ( D-NY), the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee.
I often disagree with Paul Krugman, the liberal New York Times columnist, but this statement is accurate: “If Mr. Obama can’t recapture some of the passion of 2008, can’t inspire his supporters to stand up and be heard, health care reform may well fail.”
According to Jennifer Rubin of Commentary: “One has the sense that lawmakers are just stunned that ordinary citizens would have the temerity to speak up. They simply never encounter people who disagree so bluntly and so loudly with them. Until now, the average town hall was a lightly attended snooze-fest where a few seniors came to complain about late checks and a question or two came up about a local pork-barrel project.
“But then citizens got the idea that they could come out—in droves—and give their representatives a piece of their mind. It is all quite a culture shock for the lawmakers, who seem blissfully unaware that somewhere in just about every crowd there is someone with a video camera or a cell phone recording how they respond to criticism. And so far, it’s not a pretty sight.”
It is also good to remember 2003 when Hillary Clinton said, “I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you’re not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration.”

When Harry Met Sue: The Nevada Senate Race by Gregory Hilton

Rep. Dean Heller(R-NV) has decided not to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, but a poll out today gives former State Sen. Sue Lowden a 6 point lead. What is most significant is that only 39% of likely voters approve of Reid and he has high negatives. Unlike the past, he is no longer viewed as a moderate. This is certain to be one of the most prominent races of the 2010 cycle.
With numbers like this it is difficult to image how Reid will be re-elected. In the past he used conservative rhetoric in Nevada despite a liberal voting record in DC. As Majority Leader it is now difficult for him to run away from his record.
Lowden is not yet committed to the race, but with Rep. Heller’s withdrawal today the pressure is really on her. In addition to her service in the State Senate, Lowden was Miss New Jersey 1973 and second runner-up in the Miss America pageant.
After touring with Bob Hope and the USO in places like Vietnam and earning a Master’s degree from Farleigh Dickinson University, she went on to spend 10 years as a reporter and anchorwoman in Las Vegas. She and her husband Paul are the former owners of the Sahara hotel-casino, and she is now the Chairman of the Nevada Republican Party.

Five Critical Questions for our Lawmakers by Gregory Hilton

Our nation now has a $1.7 billion deficit, new taxes on energy are pending and there are many concerns regarding a public option health care program. Here are some critical questions for our lawmakers:
1. When Democratic leaders passed the stimulus bill, they indicated it would result in holding the national unemployment rate under 8 percent. In reality, the unemployment rate soared to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent and since January, 2.84 million Americans have lost their jobs. When will the stimulus actually start working?
2. The budget deficit will approach a historic $2 trillion this year and is estimated to be $1 trillion a year for the next 10 years. Policies under discussion now would increase the top tax rate to nearly 40 percent and implement an additional surcharge of 5.4 percent that would fall primarily on small business owners to pay for health care. The top tax rate in America would be higher than that in every country except Denmark, Sweden and Belgium — a harsh penalty on investment, risk taking and business development and a recipe for more job loss. Given that the backbone of our economy is small business, how do you support this soaring deficit and increased taxes?
3. With nearly 3 million Americans out of work in the last six months alone, why are we even considering global warming legislation? India and China have promised not to participate in any effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which means accelerating the export of even more American jobs to those countries. A study by the Heritage Foundation estimates global warming legislation will lead to more than 1 million lost jobs per year and cost the average family nearly $3,000 annually. How does this get the middle class back on their feet?
4: The House global warming bill requires an energy audit for older homes, and those that fail must make expensive upgrades before the home could be sold. This will be another major economic challenge on top of already declining real estate values.
5. Supporters of health care reform efforts have said the legislation will allow Americans to choose their doctors, it will not increase the deficit and will not undermine the care that seniors currently receive. Yet the legislation being prepared for votes in the House in September would cause almost 85 million Americans to lose their current private insurance according to studies cited by the Heritage Foundation, will increase the budget deficit by $239 billion according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, will raise taxes on many Americans, including those making less than $250,000 and will eliminate Medicare Advantage, which 22 percent of seniors depend upon for their current health care. If this plan is so good for Americans, then why are our lawmakers exempted?